Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 19.681726 22.903687 26.788317 31.913044 38.649723 47.441201 60.219047
2025-01-12 14.994529 18.438584 22.974922 29.633586 39.639618 55.071170 83.093306
2025-01-19 12.486610 15.856550 20.536594 27.885727 39.974588 61.061285 107.172570
2025-01-26 12.329144 16.315152 22.248644 32.473453 51.685513 92.577770 219.757418
2025-02-02 11.631873 15.833699 22.400731 34.519854 59.816784 123.994670 417.784882
2025-02-09 10.403039 14.358020 20.690465 32.793811 59.524792 134.635644 586.697666
2025-02-16 9.896888 13.935983 20.636647 34.139010 66.726942 175.695105 1370.865120
2025-02-23 9.278898 13.252942 20.015872 34.186286 70.815235 212.788424 3520.322911
2025-03-02 8.725041 12.613025 19.375421 34.037057 74.373929 255.328736 16032.956148
2025-03-09 8.320707 12.181706 19.054177 34.515580 80.142538 325.386767 NaN
2025-03-16 7.741532 11.397875 17.973907 33.019884 78.908146 349.321819 NaN
2025-03-23 7.371503 10.948923 17.488476 32.856988 82.312862 424.742847 NaN
2025-03-30 6.853891 10.227940 16.449705 31.285320 80.471838 455.590487 NaN
2025-04-06 6.318787 9.443842 15.222902 29.068886 75.432176 441.026485 NaN
2025-04-13 5.883773 8.812748 14.251135 27.369795 71.926920 440.931611 NaN
2025-04-20 6.050706 9.276841 15.536500 31.826670 97.230627 1203.276046 NaN
2025-04-27 5.973347 9.281795 15.867908 33.811687 114.196522 2854.252268 NaN
2025-05-04 5.631875 8.763911 15.016303 32.137539 109.807763 3039.914703 NaN
2025-05-11 5.527320 8.690941 15.134480 33.442403 124.706389 9697.660470 NaN
2025-05-18 5.345730 8.456422 14.867269 33.488247 131.942566 32305.440112 NaN
2025-05-25 5.165757 8.213804 14.559025 33.343535 138.018556 381540.887790 NaN
2025-06-01 5.034563 8.058969 14.438449 33.807543 149.831543 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 4.802938 7.692384 13.793736 32.356887 144.231146 NaN NaN